Investigating the 'Hot Hand' Effect in Basketball Using Binomial Distribution and Conditional Probability

This investigation explores whether a 310-shot free-throw sequence exhibits the "hot hand" effect, testing if successful shots increase the probability of subsequent makes.

The methodology employs primary data collection analyzed through baseline success rates, binomial distribution to compare actual versus expected streak frequencies, and conditional probability to test for shot dependence. A 10-shot moving average is used to track success rate evolution over time.

Findings indicate that the data supports independence between shots, as streak frequencies align with binomial expectations and conditional probabilities for longer streaks decrease. The paper is an exemplar for its multi-faceted statistical approach and thorough evaluation of experimental limitations like fatigue and sample size.