Verifying the Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in the US (2015–2024) via the Phillips Curve Theory

This exploration investigates whether the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, as defined by the Phillips Curve, holds for the US economy from 2015 to 2024.

Utilizing data from FRED, the study employs Pearson’s correlation, exponential regression, logarithmic transformation for linear t-testing, and a Chi-Squared test for association. While Pearson's r indicates a weak negative trend, both the t-test and Chi-Squared tests fail to find statistical significance (p > 0.05).

The findings suggest the classical relationship broke down, potentially due to COVID-19-induced supply shocks. The paper is notable for its rigorous multi-method statistical approach and thorough evaluation of mathematical limitations and economic variables.